Responding to the latest soil moisture data from the Meteorological Office Rainfall and Evaporation Calculation Systems (MORECS), subsidence specialist Mainmark Ground Engineering UK is calling for a change in the National Model Design Code (NMDC) government framework, to help futureproof our communities from climate change.
It’s no secret that we are in the midst of a climate crisis, with extreme weather events and natural disasters across the world causing unprecedented disruption and costing billions in emergency relief and repair.
In certain countries, where climate change is causing wildfires, extreme flooding and even earthquakes, local governments are campaigning for a change in design codes to protect communities from further damage.
The NMDC, an industry standard framework, set out clear design parameters to help British local authorities decide what good quality design looks like in their area, doesn’t account for enough of the consequences of climate change.
However, when it comes to the rising threat of subsidence – where the ground beneath a structure sinks – there doesn’t seem to be in a rush to challenge the status quo in the UK.
According to the MORECS report 2025, the dryness of the UK’s soil is outpacing that of previous years of subsidence surges, like 2022, 2018 and 2003. This means that despite an interlude of cool, damp weather over the last week of May, we are likely to see a rise in the number of subsidence claims in homes, commercial properties and critical infrastructure over the next 12 months.
If unaddressed, the UK might experience more climate disasters like sinkholes and landslides, which Nature Geoscience recently reported are being driven by ‘aging infrastructure, legacy land use, and increasingly, climate change.’
Tom Kavanagh, General Manager at Mainmark Ground Engineering UK, said: “The immediate effects of climate change, such as flooded roads, damage to businesses, buildings and homes, and disruptions to public transport, are easily recognised. But there is a more serious threat developing underground that requires greater attention.
“Subsidence isn’t just a crack in your wall or a slope in your floor. It’s the gradual sinking or shifting of the ground beneath homes, roads, bridges, airports and railways, and can occur for a variety of reasons, including the swelling or shrinkage of clay soil due to seasonal changes in water content.
“MORECS is already predicting 2025 to be a surge year for the UK due to the warm spring we’ve experienced. Should the summer bring around more sunshine, the UK need to look at how legislation in building and design can impact the future of our communities.”
Mainmark has led and developed ground improvement and void-filling solutions to futureproof communities and infrastructure from seismic events in countries like New Zealand, Japan and Thailand, as well as leak sealing solutions for areas prone to flood events.
Tom continues: “Mainmark has a large presence in New Zealand, which has recently updated its design codes following the release of an updated National Seismic Hazard Model. While we don’t experience many seismic events in the UK, the climate crisis is starting to raise alarm bells for the UK in terms of subsidence and the overall structural quality of our homes and infrastructure.
“Therefore, to futureproof our communities, we must look at updating our model, retrofitting subsidence and other climate defences before we face an extremely disruptive and costly problem.”
It’s Tom’s view that without a society-wide change in how we design and build, we should expect a rise in damage to buildings, bridges, road and airports.
He continues: “The knock-on impact of climate-related subsidence on our economic growth, as well as our overall sustainability, could be significant. It’s now or never, and it would certainly be more cost effective to address it now.”
Tom has more than two decades’ experience in civil and construction engineering and was recently appointed as Vice Chair of the Subsidence Forum Committee – an organisation committed to improving quality and standards throughout the construction industry. He joined the Mainmark UK team in 2022 as General Manager to deliver the same market-leading solutions that have proven in Australia and New Zealand.
